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+--- Thread: Southampton - Nottingham Forest (/showthread.php?tid=1302)
RE: Southampton - Nottingham Forest - Mcforest - 04-01-2023
Southampton so far this season have played mostly a 4-2-3-1 formation however under their new manager they moved to a 3-4-2-1 formation with a view to overload the central midfield areas. I do however suspect that they will use the central midfield overload again to stop the ball being carried forward through the preferred route of transition for forest and allow them to press high.
Southampton are a aggressive team and this season have been very good at winning the ball back from the opposition teams. That said they are inclined to play the more direct passes which also results in a high % of possession loss. The aim of the longer pass is to create long range chances 40% of Southampton’s shots so far are from outside the area with 66% of all shot types from middle areas. We know from previous games that Southampton like to get a lot of shots of during games average of 14 at home with a conversion rate of 8%. What that means is they basically score a goal at home every game.
As you can imagine Southampton have a real weapon in Ward-Prowse and look to give him as many shooting opportunities as possible. The Ref will need to be strong during the game as Southampton will look to go down in dangerous areas, especially looking ones where the ball is high and the defender to be coming over the top.
When Southampton go in front, a strength this season has been holding off the opposition and protecting the lead. Forest should expect Southampton to attack from the start as they will to impose themselves over us. If Forest had ride out the first 20 mins of the game and even push them back they will become more nervous and the crowd will start to get on their back which has been the case in most of the match so far. In fact Southampton have lost 50% of their home matches this season when they have been nullified in the first 20 mins of a match.
As mentioned in the beginning Southampton’s weakness has been dealing with wide area attacks. They have had the most attacking wide dribbles completed against them so far this season. For this reason a expect to see Forest continue with the split striker set up to take full advantage of the spaces left. However to make full use of the space forest will need to move the ball faster back to front and even bypass the midfield transition.
Southampton have not kept a clean sheet at home so far and concede most goals right after halftime. This has been put down to focus following a hard and fast first half. This will be an area the new manager will be looking to improve and it might just mean we don’t see such a frantic first 45mins from them. This could help us as we do struggle to get to grips with games early so with a slower start to both halves I would expect us to get an earlier foot hold in the game.
Most shots against Southampton come in the box area (61% of shots) as the defence are fast to step out in order to block long range efforts. Unfortunately for forest they were getting done by the cute through pass and the manager has noticed this and moved to a back three so less central space has been left if one has to challenge the long range effort. That said the space has now increased to wider areas and we do have players who like to try the curling shots rather than the power drive from distance also means with the split strikers we should get more chances to drive in from wider areas.
This is going to be a very tight game and I suspect 1 goal will win it. If Forest can stop Southampton getting the knock downs from the longer passes then they should have enough to control the possession in the game but the question is can we get that away goal. Most likely outcome (46%) 0-0
RE: Southampton - Nottingham Forest - ozzyten10 - 04-01-2023
For almost the first time this season I think cooper knows his strongest 11. The team against Chelsea looked balanced and we’re able to change tact when we want 1-0 down. The patterns of play, especially on the right side are improving and the back 4 seem quite strong.
I actually think the back 4 played well against Man U but we’re outdone on the transition twice and a cover corner. For much of the game they were good.
Our corners need improvement as they often end up with us conceding a chance away from home. I’d seriously look at this if I were Cooper. If the ball is cleared easily then we can’t get our defenders back quick enough - happened time and time again but not helped with poor delivery. I’d put jonno back at corners as his pace would help and he’s useless in the box at corners anyway.
I’m looking forward to tonight and hoping for a positive result - a win would be nice but would snap your hand off for not losing
RE: Southampton - Nottingham Forest - DeesideRed - 04-01-2023
(04-01-2023, 12:56 AM)zicorice Wrote: Pressure is more on them. Must not lose game for us, must win for them...
Jeez I'm nervous.
Think this is where i'm at fair more MUST NOT LOSE than must win, especially with our away record.
RE: Southampton - Nottingham Forest - Floridared - 04-01-2023
(04-01-2023, 09:42 AM)Sniffer Dog (Admin) Wrote: 0-0 will do for me.
Not for me, we have, at some time, have to take advantage of the poor results of teams around us. to begin to drag ourselves out of the mire a win tonight is a must. Yes I know we have only scored 1 away goal all season but if we are to go up the table then tonight is a turning point for us.
RE: Southampton - Nottingham Forest - JollyLolly - 04-01-2023
I don't believe for one second that tonight's result will have any impact on our PL status come the end of the season, its all about performance. We are not even halfway through the season as yet so lots of points to play for, results are dictated by many facets, some we can control and others we can not! Let's all hope Forest players turn out tonight and have a real go and not sit back like most of the previous away games this season.
RE: Southampton - Nottingham Forest - Shawoddyred - 04-01-2023
(04-01-2023, 02:46 PM)JollyLolly Wrote: I don't believe for one second that tonight's result will have any impact on our PL status come the end of the season, its all about performance. We are not even halfway through the season as yet so lots of points to play for, results are dictated by many facets, some we can control and others we can not! Let's all hope Forest players turn out tonight and have a real go and not sit back like most of the previous away games this season.
I mean, I get what you're saying but 3 points is 3 points towards an end of season total that will either keep us up or otherwise. So clearly, they all matter, hugely, and have an impact. It would also keep a rival from earning points, which is almost as important.
If we lose then we aren't automatically relegated, but it will be a hugely impactful result should we lose and I will have a lot less belief in us being able to stay up in that case.
RE: Southampton - Nottingham Forest - Floridared - 04-01-2023
(04-01-2023, 02:46 PM)JollyLolly Wrote: I don't believe for one second that tonight's result will have any impact on our PL status come the end of the season, its all about performance. We are not even halfway through the season as yet so lots of points to play for, results are dictated by many facets, some we can control and others we can not! Let's all hope Forest players turn out tonight and have a real go and not sit back like most of the previous away games this season.
Respectfully all results have an impact on our PL status. If we loose tonight and get relegated by 2 points im sure that we would look back and rue the points lost in every game especially against team who are around us. We cannot afford to leave it until the last few games to try and win games to save our bacon. we need to do it the earlier the better.
RE: Southampton - Nottingham Forest - wassy04 - 04-01-2023
(04-01-2023, 02:56 PM)Floridared Wrote:(04-01-2023, 02:46 PM)JollyLolly Wrote: I don't believe for one second that tonight's result will have any impact on our PL status come the end of the season, its all about performance. We are not even halfway through the season as yet so lots of points to play for, results are dictated by many facets, some we can control and others we can not! Let's all hope Forest players turn out tonight and have a real go and not sit back like most of the previous away games this season.
Respectfully all results have an impact on our PL status. If we loose tonight and get relegated by 2 points im sure that we would look back and rue the points lost in every game especially against team who are around us. We cannot afford to leave it until the last few games to try and win games to save our bacon. we need to do it the earlier the better.
Also, add in this is against one of our relegation rivals and probably the worst team in the league. The classic relegation 6 pointer, I reckon we'll do them. Revenge for Luton last year that cost us autos.
RE: Southampton - Nottingham Forest - JollyLolly - 04-01-2023
I take onboard your points guys, all valid but lets not pressure ourselves at this stage of the season in MUST win games! There will be games later in the season that most would expect us to lose but instead we win so gain the points back lost against expected or MUST win matches, it's the magic of the game and that's why we all love it as supporters!
RE: Southampton - Nottingham Forest - wassy04 - 04-01-2023
(04-01-2023, 03:43 PM)JollyLolly Wrote: I take onboard your points guys, all valid but lets not pressure ourselves at this stage of the season in MUST win games! There will be games later in the season that most would expect us to lose but instead we win so gain the points back lost against expected or MUST win matches, it's the magic of the game and that's why we all love it as supporters!
I do agree with your point in that it's only must win when it is literally mathematically required to keep you up.
I think we can all agree it's important anyway, excited to see Scarpa off the bench (or even starting depending on fitness of the other front three!)
RE: Southampton - Nottingham Forest - Floridared - 04-01-2023
(04-01-2023, 03:47 PM)wassy04 Wrote:(04-01-2023, 03:43 PM)JollyLolly Wrote: I take onboard your points guys, all valid but lets not pressure ourselves at this stage of the season in MUST win games! There will be games later in the season that most would expect us to lose but instead we win so gain the points back lost against expected or MUST win matches, it's the magic of the game and that's why we all love it as supporters!
I do agree with your point in that it's only must win when it is literally mathematically required to keep you up.
I think we can all agree it's important anyway, excited to see Scarpa off the bench (or even starting depending on fitness of the other front three!)
I was impressed with Scarpa when I saw him against Valencia, his effort , positioning and distribution were all very good. I wonder if Steve sees it this way and plays him from the start?
RE: Southampton - Nottingham Forest - wassy04 - 04-01-2023
(04-01-2023, 04:43 PM)Floridared Wrote:(04-01-2023, 03:47 PM)wassy04 Wrote:I was impressed with Scarpa when I saw him against Valencia, his effort , positioning and distribution were all very good. I wonder if Steve sees it this way and plays him from the start?(04-01-2023, 03:43 PM)JollyLolly Wrote: I take onboard your points guys, all valid but lets not pressure ourselves at this stage of the season in MUST win games! There will be games later in the season that most would expect us to lose but instead we win so gain the points back lost against expected or MUST win matches, it's the magic of the game and that's why we all love it as supporters!
I do agree with your point in that it's only must win when it is literally mathematically required to keep you up.
I think we can all agree it's important anyway, excited to see Scarpa off the bench (or even starting depending on fitness of the other front three!)
In a normal week no but given we've had two games relatively close together after no matches, lost Lingard to injury, MGW just back from injury, he might be inclined to throw the fresh legs in and rest one of the front three. Also, Southampton won't be expecting it so it could provide a shock for them.