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+--- Thread: Expected League Position Based On XG (/showthread.php?tid=862)
Expected League Position Based On XG - wassy04 - 24-11-2020
OK so I'm sending this on my phone so not got the ability to type this out but ideally would paste these league tables weekly to provide a statical analysis of our position.
Tails mentioned these stats in his latest article so thought it was worth flagging. Apologies if you don't believe in stats or believe that points on the board is the only thing that counts.
For reference, last season had us way down on these stats which eventually came to roost. Another example was Bristol City who also dropped off so clearly these stats have merit.
This season we are 6th in xG which is pretty good and 20th on xG against which is less good. Overall net position was top 10 which probably feels about right.
So the lessons for me, one is obvious, we have missed some really good chances, Grabban early on and Guerrero in the last game. However you could also argue that we've had some nice matches which makes the xG against stat particularly worrying and perhaps shines the light on the fact that our defence so far (and central midfield perhaps) has been the weak link.
How much of this was based on the first four games under Sabri, pass not sure. I certainly feel that the defence is weaker than least year right now. Christie is a huge downgrade on Cash, perhaps Worrall will help when he replaces Figs. Left back is also a weak spot and we really need one of them to step up their game. I would back Ioannou personally although I'm aware he's not popular.
RE: Expected League Position based on xG - Salvatore Matrecano - 24-11-2020
Call me old fashioned but I never pay much attention to these things. As you say yourself is it the strikers fault for not converting chances, the defence fault for conceding or the midfield fault for not keeping possession?
The saying is that the league table (the real one) never lies. I agree with that.
RE: Expected League Position Based On XG - Alf - 24-11-2020
10th would be a good finish for this season now IMO. Playoffs, whilst not impossible, would be absolutely spectacular.
RE: Expected League Position Based On XG - ThePromisedLand - 24-11-2020
One of the reasons I don't rate Tails’ contributions to The Athletic.
So many of his articles these days are just rehashes of data - anyone can find this stuff if they are so inclined.
Reads like he has swallowed a bloody abacus - no originality whatsoever.
RE: Expected League Position based on xG - Tricky - 24-11-2020
(24-11-2020, 11:53 AM)Salvatore Matrecano Wrote: Call me old fashioned but I never pay much attention to these things. As you say yourself is it the strikers fault for not converting chances, the defence fault for conceding or the midfield fault for not keeping possession?
The saying is that the league table (the real one) never lies. I agree with that.
I have been highly critical of Grabban this season, but I am going to defend him to a small degree here. Whilst he has missed some absolute sitters (4 spring to mind), we have to also take into consideration the misses that Ryan Yates has squandered too. At least three or four headers that if put on target would almost certainly have gone in. So it isnt all about Guerrero, Grabban or Taylor it is about the entire team having poor efforts at goal.
RE: Expected League Position based on xG - wassy04 - 24-11-2020
(24-11-2020, 11:53 AM)Salvatore Matrecano Wrote: Call me old fashioned but I never pay much attention to these things. As you say yourself is it the strikers fault for not converting chances, the defence fault for conceding or the midfield fault for not keeping possession?
The saying is that the league table (the real one) never lies. I agree with that.
Haha you're old fashioned! No I do agree you can interpret them a number of ways and also doesn't account for strength of opposition. However, they're not to be written off either.
RE: Expected League Position Based On XG - wassy04 - 24-11-2020
(24-11-2020, 12:05 PM)ThePromisedLand Wrote: One of the reasons I don't rate Tails’ contributions to The Athletic.
So many of his articles these days are just rehashes of data - anyone can find this stuff if they are so inclined.
Reads like he has swallowed a bloody abacus - no originality whatsoever.
See I disagree with that as whilst he was just rehashing stats that are readily available I'd suggest they're not stats that necessarily everyone has looked at. Plus he broke it down by players which I haven't seen the stats for.
It would be more useful if he uses these stats to provide more analysis on changes in the data going forward rather than just reciting them mind you. Forest Boffin is by far the best for analysis on Forest
RE: Expected League Position Based On XG - Paplane - 24-11-2020
Would someone mind explaining the concept of this xg thing please. Ta.
RE: Expected League Position Based On XG - ThePromisedLand - 24-11-2020
(24-11-2020, 01:11 PM)wassy04 Wrote:(24-11-2020, 12:05 PM)ThePromisedLand Wrote: One of the reasons I don't rate Tails’ contributions to The Athletic.
So many of his articles these days are just rehashes of data - anyone can find this stuff if they are so inclined.
Reads like he has swallowed a bloody abacus - no originality whatsoever.
See I disagree with that as whilst he was just rehashing stats that are readily available I'd suggest they're not stats that necessarily everyone has looked at. Plus he broke it down by players which I haven't seen the stats for.
It would be more useful if he uses these stats to provide more analysis on changes in the data going forward rather than just reciting them mind you. Forest Boffin is by far the best for analysis on Forest
If I want to read stats you’re right I’ll go to Forest Boffin.
RE: Expected League Position Based On XG - Sniffer Dog (Admin) - 24-11-2020
(24-11-2020, 01:19 PM)Paplane Wrote: Would someone mind explaining the concept of this xg thing please. Ta.
Can't help you Pap. I am not a stat man. Prefer my own eyes.
RE: Expected League Position Based On XG - wassy04 - 24-11-2020
(24-11-2020, 01:31 PM)Sniffer Dog Wrote:(24-11-2020, 01:19 PM)Paplane Wrote: Would someone mind explaining the concept of this xg thing please. Ta.
Can't help you Pap. I am not a stat man. Prefer my own eyes.
EXPECTED GOALS (XG) MEASURES THE QUALITY OF A SHOT BASED ON SEVERAL VARIABLES SUCH AS ASSIST TYPE, SHOT ANGLE AND DISTANCE FROM GOAL, WHETHER IT WAS A HEADED SHOT AND WHETHER IT WAS DEFINED AS A BIG CHANCE.
ADDING UP A PLAYER OR TEAM’S EXPECTED GOALS CAN GIVE US AN INDICATION OF HOW MANY GOALS A PLAYER OR TEAM SHOULD HAVE SCORED ON AVERAGE, GIVEN THE SHOTS THEY HAVE TAKEN.
Apologies for the caps, that was how it was written on the opta site. It gives an idea of about how many goals you should've scored during a game. Obviously not a great stat on its own but taken over a number of games should give an indicator of performance as in general youd expect teams with a positive net xG (ie more goals expected to score than concede) to be winning most of their games
RE: Expected League Position based on xG - Username - 24-11-2020
(24-11-2020, 12:11 PM)Tricky Wrote:(24-11-2020, 11:53 AM)Salvatore Matrecano Wrote: Call me old fashioned but I never pay much attention to these things. As you say yourself is it the strikers fault for not converting chances, the defence fault for conceding or the midfield fault for not keeping possession?
The saying is that the league table (the real one) never lies. I agree with that.
I have been highly critical of Grabban this season, but I am going to defend him to a small degree here. Whilst he has missed some absolute sitters (4 spring to mind), we have to also take into consideration the misses that Ryan Yates has squandered too. At least three or four headers that if put on target would almost certainly have gone in. So it isnt all about Guerrero, Grabban or Taylor it is about the entire team having poor efforts at goal.
Sanity.