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(03-08-2018, 12:03 PM)optimistic_red Wrote: i'll be happy with top 6.
last season we finished with 53 points (1.15 per game)
Wolves 99 pts 2.15 per game
Cardiff 90 pts 1.95 per game
Fulham 88 pts 1.91 per game
Aston Villa 83 pts 1.8 per game
Middlesboro 76 pts 1.65 per game
Derby 75 pts 1.63 per game
So its about consistency, 1/2 point more per game gets us to play off, 1 point per game auto.
It's a massive gap to make up in 1 year. I do wonder if it might be too much this season and I cant imagine the manager (whoever it may be) being allowed to go out and spend another 20m next summer to further reduce the difference.
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03-08-2018, 01:34 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-08-2018, 01:35 PM by Strawberry Avenger.)
(03-08-2018, 12:03 PM)optimistic_red Wrote: i'll be happy with top 6.
last season we finished with 53 points (1.15 per game)
Wolves 99 pts 2.15 per game
Cardiff 90 pts 1.95 per game
Fulham 88 pts 1.91 per game
Aston Villa 83 pts 1.8 per game
Middlesboro 76 pts 1.65 per game
Derby 75 pts 1.63 per game
So its about consistency, 1/2 point more per game gets us to play off, 1 point per game auto.
Add in Stoke, WBA and Swansea...to the Villa, Boro' and Derby. Those 'could' be the 'top 6' this time around. (with Norwich, Millwall, Preston, Brentford hovering around the top 8-10.)
...and that is the opposition that Forest have to compete with for a top 6 position.
Forest have Strength, Skill and Athleticism. A perfect storm of attributes to break into that top 6. Forest CAN claw back another 1/2 a point per game. They just didn't have the quality to finish off the opposition last season when they were on top...so many 'close' results. So many cheap results going against Forest. With the Karanka factor (he'll demand no less than consistency, of players giving of their best and has the squad depth to achieve that level of pressure...) and the merticulous recruitment, I believe that Forest will at least convert another 1/2 a point per game. That's doable.
It IS about consistency.
SA.
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(03-08-2018, 01:21 PM)Paplane Wrote: (03-08-2018, 12:03 PM)optimistic_red Wrote: i'll be happy with top 6.
last season we finished with 53 points (1.15 per game)
Wolves 99 pts 2.15 per game
Cardiff 90 pts 1.95 per game
Fulham 88 pts 1.91 per game
Aston Villa 83 pts 1.8 per game
Middlesboro 76 pts 1.65 per game
Derby 75 pts 1.63 per game
So its about consistency, 1/2 point more per game gets us to play off, 1 point per game auto.
It's a massive gap to make up in 1 year. I do wonder if it might be too much this season and I cant imagine the manager (whoever it may be) being allowed to go out and spend another 20m next summer to further reduce the difference.
The club has done it twice.
19th to 3rd and 20th to 8th.
Both times with BD, he didn't get to rebuild the entire squad though, only build on it.
It's gotta be doable.
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(03-08-2018, 01:48 PM)McDurban Wrote: (03-08-2018, 01:21 PM)Paplane Wrote: (03-08-2018, 12:03 PM)optimistic_red Wrote: i'll be happy with top 6.
last season we finished with 53 points (1.15 per game)
Wolves 99 pts 2.15 per game
Cardiff 90 pts 1.95 per game
Fulham 88 pts 1.91 per game
Aston Villa 83 pts 1.8 per game
Middlesboro 76 pts 1.65 per game
Derby 75 pts 1.63 per game
So its about consistency, 1/2 point more per game gets us to play off, 1 point per game auto.
It's a massive gap to make up in 1 year. I do wonder if it might be too much this season and I cant imagine the manager (whoever it may be) being allowed to go out and spend another 20m next summer to further reduce the difference.
The club has done it twice.
19th to 3rd and 20th to 8th.
Both times with BD, he didn't get to rebuild the entire squad though, only build on it.
It's gotta be doable.
Both were note worthy achievements.
This time, as you say, the entire squad has been completely rebuilt over two transfer windows. That should be more than enough to gain another 1/2 a point per game return. So many of the games last season were those 'fine margin' moments where if Forest had just had the quality they had now, top 8 finish would have been 'easy' and an assault on the top 6 likely.
Definitely 'doable.'
SA.
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How many times do the three relegated clubs finish the next season in the top 6?
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03-08-2018, 02:28 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-08-2018, 02:47 PM by optimistic_red.)
(03-08-2018, 02:02 PM)Strawberry Avenger Wrote: (03-08-2018, 01:48 PM)McDurban Wrote: (03-08-2018, 01:21 PM)Paplane Wrote: (03-08-2018, 12:03 PM)optimistic_red Wrote: i'll be happy with top 6.
last season we finished with 53 points (1.15 per game)
Wolves 99 pts 2.15 per game
Cardiff 90 pts 1.95 per game
Fulham 88 pts 1.91 per game
Aston Villa 83 pts 1.8 per game
Middlesboro 76 pts 1.65 per game
Derby 75 pts 1.63 per game
So its about consistency, 1/2 point more per game gets us to play off, 1 point per game auto.
It's a massive gap to make up in 1 year. I do wonder if it might be too much this season and I cant imagine the manager (whoever it may be) being allowed to go out and spend another 20m next summer to further reduce the difference.
The club has done it twice.
19th to 3rd and 20th to 8th.
Both times with BD, he didn't get to rebuild the entire squad though, only build on it.
It's gotta be doable.
Both were note worthy achievements.
This time, as you say, the entire squad has been completely rebuilt over two transfer windows. That should be more than enough to gain another 1/2 a point per game return. So many of the games last season were those 'fine margin' moments where if Forest had just had the quality they had now, top 8 finish would have been 'easy' and an assault on the top 6 likely.
Definitely 'doable.'
SA. I agree its definitely doable.
However, since Karanka has taken over he has a record of 21 games, 5 wins, 6 draws, 10 loss (wiki) so that's only 1 points per game.
I just hope there is enough patience as it'll take time to turn it around, but I believe we are heading in the right direction.
(03-08-2018, 02:16 PM)Username Wrote: How many times do the three relegated clubs finish the next season in the top 6?
not sure about the top 6 but, teams promoted having been relegated the season before
93-94 Forest, Palace
94-95
95-96 Leicester
96-97 Bolton
97-98 Forest, Middlesboro
98-99
99-00 Carlton
00-01
01-02 Man City
02-03 Leicester
03-04 WBA
04-05
05-06
06-07 Birm City, Sunderland
07-08
08-09 Birm City
09-10 Newcastle, WBA
10-11
11-12 West Ham
12-13
13-14 QPR
14-15 Norwich
15-16 Hull
16-17 Newcastle
17-18
18-19 who knows?
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So mostly only one of the relegated clubs makes it back on the bounce. I think that honour is being given to Stoke at the moment.
Some drop into L1 within a couple of seasons too. No names mentioned.
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Well I'm going to sit on the fence here and predict a top 6 finish (Top 2 are in the top 6).
I actually think the relegated clubs are going to be a bit of a let down in terms of expectation and will find it extremely hard to adapt to the championship, especially during the first half of the season, when their scalps for a lot of the smaller clubs will be like a cup final victory. This is the time we really need to be seeing the hard work put in during pre-season and we get a decent points total amassed before the relegated clubs start to find their feet
"It's Tricky to rock a rhyme, to rock a rhyme that's right on time, it's Trickay, It's Tricky, Tricky, Tricky Tricky" - Run DMC
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03-08-2018, 05:38 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-08-2018, 05:43 PM by Strawberry Avenger.)
(03-08-2018, 02:55 PM)McDurban Wrote: So mostly only one of the relegated clubs makes it back on the bounce. I think that honour is being given to Stoke at the moment.
Some drop into L1 within a couple of seasons too. No names mentioned.
I remember when Forest used to spank Stoke in the First Division.
SA.
(03-08-2018, 02:55 PM)McDurban Wrote: So mostly only one of the relegated clubs makes it back on the bounce. I think that honour is being given to Stoke at the moment.
Some drop into L1 within a couple of seasons too. No names mentioned.
Stoke are being anointed by some. Rowett. I'd play my tiny violin if they get off to a bad start.
WBA won about 5-7 games in 47 games? ...and Swansea were struggling in the top flight. They're back to basics. Sounds like consolidation to me. Out of the 3, Stoke have spent biggest?
But that's no guarantee of anything in the Championship.
Can't wait for the season to start and we can find out.
SA.
(03-08-2018, 05:22 PM)Tricky Wrote: Well I'm going to sit on the fence here and predict a top 6 finish (Top 2 are in the top 6).
I actually think the relegated clubs are going to be a bit of a let down in terms of expectation and will find it extremely hard to adapt to the championship, especially during the first half of the season, when their scalps for a lot of the smaller clubs will be like a cup final victory. This is the time we really need to be seeing the hard work put in during pre-season and we get a decent points total amassed before the relegated clubs start to find their feet
Yeah, get in early, put the boot into the points nice and quick to pile the pressure on the relegated teams.
SA.
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So since football was invented (the introduction of the Premier League) it’s never happened?!
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right now the window for perm transfers is shut and i've had a chance to see the team out side of friendlies i am going so say we will finish 6th but miss out in play offs. I think the team will yo-yo in and out of the top 6 all season before looking like we are dropping away then a last moment surge to take 6th place but come undone in the two leg play off.
I think we are now a team who are good at playing the ball and will make chances but not many big chances. So wining games by the odd goal will be our thing however silly errors because we don't start games quickly or we tyre at the end will cost us the points needed to be comfortable top 6.
In the play off's we will end up playing a team like Villa who can soak up pressure and hit us at the end of games with the sucker punch.
All sounds pessimistic i know but in reality a top 6 finish is a huge improvement from a new team and means we have won more games than we did last year while being entertain with some truly breath taking football.
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I think that all sounds reasonable.
Though, I hope we give Steve Bruce's Villa a beating...
SA.
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